Sir Nigel's Journey…

I firmly believe Zimbabweans have every right to know how the diamonds are adding value to their own lives. Here’s a Global Witness report dated February 2012 entitled Diamonds A good deal for Zimbabwe? What are your thoughts?

The 2012 budget will focus on the following issues:

1. Consolidating macro-economic stability, founded on an anti-cyclical macro-economic framework;

2. Deliberate focus on inclusive growth with jobs;

3. Attending to the issue of capital formation through Public

4. Sector Investments, with special emphasis on completing outstanding capital projects as opposed to green fields;

5. Ensuring and establishing food security;

6. Redesigning the financial services sector to promote savings, financial deepening, viability, sustainable finance to the business sector, as well as reduction of financial sector vulnerability;

7. Decentralising allocation of resources, with special emphasis on even and equal treatment of Provinces;

8. Investment in social services delivery, in particular health and education;

9. Creating a conducive “Doing Business Environment””;

10. Monetising the Peace Process, in particular the Constitutional

11. Referendum, National Healing and the GPA democratisation imperators;

12. Tackling critical enablers, in particular energy, water and sanitation; and

13. Special focus on rural under-development through addressing rural energy, water and agriculture.

Biti’s focus is ‘the pursuit of inclusive growth, growth with jobs is the focus of this budget’.

Key budget points:

Domestic Developments:

1. Overall growth rate to the end of 2011 is still projected at 9.3%

2. This growth momentum is anticipated to be maintained in 2012 at 9.4%, underpinned by further positive performance in finance (23%), mining (15.8%), tourism (13.7%), agriculture (11.6%), manufacturing (6%), and transport and communication (6%).

Of the transport and communication, ICTs account for 55%, reflecting the large investments being made in that area.

Gross Capital Formation:

1. Countries such as China and India with gross capital formations of more than 50% and 32% of GDP, respectively, have managed to sustain high growth rates of more than 8% annually

2. For developing countries such as Zimbabwe, gross capital formation of at least 30% of GDP is required to facilitate high and sustainable growth rates.

3. Between 2009 and 2010, the country’s gross capital formation remained below 30%, ranging between 15-22% of GDP and is expected to remain within that range in 2011 .– 2012

Foreign Direct Investment:

Zimbabwe’s capital account inflows, thus, remain a sad story, with 2011 foreign direct investment levels at US$125 million.

Agriculture:

The agricultural sector requires more than US$2 billion annually to fully take advantage of its potential the projected growth in agricultural production

of 11.6% in 2012 takes account of the number of financing facilities established by Government, the banking sector, co-operating partners, seed and fertilizer suppliers in support of the preparation for the 2011/2012 agricultural season.

Mining:

1. The 2011 growth for the sector estimated at 25.8%, marginally down on the initial forecast of 33%.

2. In 2012, mining is anticipated to remain the major driving force behind overall economic growth, benefitting from further private capital injections, firm international commodity prices and anticipated initiatives to minimise electricity supply interruptions

Manufacturing:

1. Further recovery in both agriculture and mining should have positive spill over benefits for manufacturing industry, which is projected to register a 6% growth in 2012.

2. Challenges to be overcome include mobilisation of additional lines of credit for industrial re-tooling and other working capital requirements.

3. Sub-sectors anticipated to drive growth in manufacturing will include food stuffs (6%), wood and furniture (8%), metals and metal products (11%), and non-metal products (25%).

Capacity Utilisation:

1. Developments during the first half of the year to June 2011 indicate that overall average capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector improved to about 57.2%, compared to 43.7% last year

2. Capacity utilisation in some of the higher performing sub-sectors is set to significantly improve, from current average levels of around 65%.

3. Capacity utilisation in such sub-sectors as clothing, textiles and printing is set to remain poor, with levels of as low as 20% anticipated in some industries

4. Major factors constraining capacity utilisation include low product demand, obsolete machinery susceptible to frequent breakdowns, lack of working capital and raw materials

Electricity:

1. Notwithstanding targeted and on-going rehabilitation programmes at Hwange, Kariba and small thermal power stations, power supply remains a major challenge for economic recovery.

2. In 2011 alone, about US$40 million was disbursed for the energy programmes, however, resulting in only un-sustained marginal gains in power generation

3. The targeted power supply in 2011 of 1 600 MW remains a challenge, as only an average of 1 105 MW has so far been realised, though some output improvement from 952 MW in 2010.

4. In 2012, electricity output is projected at 1 244 MW, reflecting only a 4.5% growth, a far cry from power supply levels required to drive sustainable increased production activity power supply remains a major noose around the economy.

5. Uninterrupted electricity supply will, however, hinge on sustained investments in power generation and transmission which, will require the contribution of all beneficiaries

Tourism:

1. Further work towards overcoming negative perceptions over our country is required.

2. Some success towards re-branding Zimbabwe’s tourism facilities and infrastructure under the theme – “Zimbabwe: A World of Wonders.” coupled with the self-evident reduction of internal disharmony over the last 35 months, is being noted.

3. The successful bid by Zimbabwe to co-host with Zambia the 2013 United Nations World Tourism Organisation General Assembly is, therefore, a positive development for the country. Successful hosting of this event should further boost tourist arrivals.

4. The partial recovery of tourism has seen growth in average bed occupancy from 36% in 2010 to 37% in 2011.

Information Communication Technology:

1. Information Communication Technology (ICT) sector remains one of the fastest growing sectors of the economy. According to the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), Zimbabwe was ranked 124 out of 152, jumping four places from the 128 it was in 2008

2. Concurrently, the voice penetration rate or tele-density has improved, reaching 68% in 2011, of which mobile penetration accounted for 65%, making Zimbabwe one of the countries with the highest rates alongside South Africa, Botswana, and Mozambique.

3. However, the internet penetration rate at around 13% remains below the international levels of 26.6%, although above the regional average of 11%.

4. Cumulatively, the three mobile service providers share close to 8.1 million subscribers, up from 7.7 million last year

Transport:

1. Rail transport is the most competitive mode of transport for bulk goods internally, and with external markets

2. The poor state of our rail transport system and network continues to undermine the competitiveness of Zimbabwean goods in markets

3. Major challenges at the National Railways of Zimbabwe (NRZ) relate to run-down track, obsolete signalling systems and rolling stock.

Construction:

1. Construction activity is often a useful barometer for underlying business activity in any economy

2. The stabilisation of the macro-economic environment since 2009 has allowed the construction sector to slowly emerge from the crisis of the past decade, with positive growth of 1% estimated for 2011 and 1.5% for 2012

3. Challenges related to intermittent supply side bottlenecks of such critical inputs as cement and bricks, coupled with under-capitalisation of the major construction companies and liquidity constraints, all serve to limit the sector’s capacity to seize on emerging green shoots of economic recovery.

4. With gradual improvement in investment in the production of the key building materials such as cement and bricks, activity in the sector is set to improve

National Housing:

Government has availed the US$25 million facility in 2010 through the IDBZ for housing projects in various local authorities.

Of this amount, US$14.8 million has so far been spent on various housing projects in a number of local authorities, which include:

• Willowvale Flats; Sunway City, Dzivarasekwa and Marimba in Harare;

• Lower Paradise in Marondera

• Mbizo in Kwekwe;

• Chikanga in Mutare;

• Parklands in Bulawayo;

• Checheche in Chipinge; and

• Nemamwa in Masvingo;

• Spitzkop in Gwanda; and

• Tshobani in Chiredzi.

Inflation:

1. Since the inauguration of our Inclusive Government 35 months ago, inflation management and oversight remains the apogee of our macro-economic targets

2. Annual inflation, which started the year at 3.5%, dropped to

3. 2.5% in the second quarter of the year. By the third Quarter of

4. The year, inflation was on the rise, reaching 3.3% in July, 3.5% in August and 4.3% in September. Month on month inflation also oscillated in almost the same pattern.

5. Developments in the month of October witnessed some reversal, with monthly inflation falling to 0.1%. Monthly inflation in September was 0.8%, a level last registered in March. The significant deceleration in inflation during October saw the year on-year inflation falling to 4.2%.

6. The major drivers of inflation so far in 2011 have been housing and rental costs, alcohol and food.

7. There was a sharp increase of 0.5% in food prices between August and September, related to unwarranted retrogressive price adjustments on some basic commodities, following review of import duties.

8. International oil prices have been volatile and mostly on the decline from April 2011. However and surprisingly, there was no corresponding movement in domestic prices

9. Our domestic price developments also reflect the economic integration pattern between our economy and that of South Africa, a major source of our imports. Some of the price movements in South Africa are reproduced asymmetrically in Zimbabwe.

10. Government review of utility tariffs has also had a bearing on inflationary pressures in the economy, in particular the 31% electricity adjustment in September 2011

11. Projections to year end, however, show annual average inflation remaining within the targeted range of 3.5-4.5%.

12. Our inflation levels remain within the SADC macroeconomic convergence criteria thresholds.

Financial Services:

1. There is no doubt that, over the last 35 months, developments in the financial sector have been progressively upwards, with the deposit base now estimated at US$3.3 billion by end of September 2011.

2. It is estimated that over US$2 billion remains outside the formal banking system, on account of absence of incentives and historical confidence concerns, among others

3. In 2012, the deposit base is estimated at above US$3.8 billion, of which about 80% will be available for lending.

4. Lending to the productive sectors grew to US$2.59 billion over the period, constituting 78.4% of total deposits. Primary beneficiaries were in the sectors of agriculture (18%), manufacturing, (20%), distribution (19%) and mining (6%).

5. However, compared to previous years, there is a gradual shift in the proportion of lending towards services, construction, communication and individuals, while the share of lending to agriculture, mining and manufacturing remained relatively stagnant.

6. Beneficiaries continue to face high lending interest rates of about 15-30%, against deposit rates of as low as 0.2%.

The entire 2012 National Budget Statement is located here – http://www.zimtreasury.org/downloads/930.pdf

Come to the Harare Food, Wine and Home Expo at Borrowdale Park Racecourse along Borrowdale Road on Friday 11^th November to Sunday 13^th November 2011 for a fun weekend event.

• Food and wine tasting, exclusive home decor, pub, DJs, bands
• Children’s playground with water slides, jumping castles, games
• Fashion shows by Ruffcuts Wear Marco Machona
• Body Active Gym demos in Zumba, Tae Bo and karate
• Demos by the celebrity chef who trained Jaime Oliver
• American Motors car exhibitions including Fiat and Kia

Don’t miss Harare’s ultimate summer fair!

DATE: Friday 11 November to Sunday 13 November 2011
VENUE: Borrowdale Park Racecourse (opposite Celebration Centre and Dandaro)
TIME: 10 am to 7pm Daily
TICKETS: $5 Adults and $2 children under 16
(Entrance is free between 10 and 11am on the first day)

Tickets are available at Body Active Gym – Borrowdale Race Course Harare.
For stands please contact Debbie Peters on email dnpeters_1999 [at]yahoo.com

 

I attended the Sangnanai-Hlanganai World Travel Fair 2011 which was held at Rainbow Towers in Harare. I was impressed with the setup and the variety of stands. Typically one would expect to see the tourism related stands, but there were other exhibitors including some of the major educational institutions in Zimbabwe and even our brand new friend – ‘Emirates’.

According to The Herald ‘This is the first time that Sanganai/Hlanganani, as a brand, has had a country partner and the arrangement is meant to boost tourist arrivals from countries seen to be doing well in promoting arrivals into Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe International Travel and Tours (ZITT) are partnering the Zimbabwe Tourism Authority (ZTA) in hosting the Chinese delegation of over 60 exhibitors, buyers and journalists from the Asian country’.

There were a large number of Chinese people walking around, taking pictures and networking with various individuals. From what I heard, the majority of the Chinese had actually flown in earlier this week specifically to attend this trade fair. This is very encouraging I thought. From what I actully saw over the last few days, I have no doubt that the travel industry in Zimbabwe is on its way back to where it belongs. The journey has been and will continue to be hard given the last decade or so, but I know that the Zimbabwean is a resilient and resourceful individual – we have and will always ‘make a plan’.

I took some photos: -  

Rainbow Towers Entrance

Some exhibitors in the foyer

The African Sun stand

Just outside the HICC

 Zimbabwe Defence Forces stand

Someone brought their plane! (which I thought was cool!)

The Zimbabwe Tourism Authority (ZTA) stand

Eastern Highlands Stand

Another outdoors shot

The Emirates Stand

Cars and more cars at the Range Rover & Jaguar stand

The Art and Craft stands

A publisher I work closely with in South Africa is URGENTLY looking for Shona and Ndebele writers. Please contact me for more details using my email: sirnigelsjourney [at] yahoo [dot] com.

Interesting video: -

I was fortunate enough to get tickets to attend the very first BarCamp in Harare Zimbabwe. I wasn’t disappointed in fact, quite the opposite. There were many people from various backgrounds including students, ICT entrepreneurs, media and even bloggers like little me. The main focus on the day was of course the Startup Challenge. I wasn’t involved although I must admit that I do have a project that I am working on that could easily qualify for the competition. I was particularly intrigued by fellow ICT enthusiasts who spoke about changing and adding value to the sector in their own respective way. I also witnessed a variety of Zimbabweans – White, Indian, Mixed Race and Blacks ‘vibing in the same room’ whilst contributing and sharing their various thoughts and ideas on the industry. Call me the nostalgic blogger but I couldn’t help but smile from within that day. Here we were a bunch of us Zimbabweans trying to make a difference in our own way. Yet another example that things can and do work without any political influence or intervention. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, not everything in Zimbabwe is politically related and BarCampZim was yet again a very good example of this.

What did I get out of the day?

I learnt that I wasn’t the only one with a Zimbabwean based ICT related project. I learnt that there are many people working hard in their homes and businesses on some project with the potential to change the industry in Zimbabwe and beyond in some way. To say I was inspired is a massive understatement.  Every time I go to South Africa or pass through Nairobi enroute to some other destination, I can’t help but think about the ‘potential’ that Zimbabwe has within the region. It’s massive! With a well educated and entrepreneurial minded population I see a bright future ahead of us. If we could just make and follow through with the ‘necessary investment’ in the various areas, I predict that Zimbabwe could challenge the likes of Kenya and also become a massive Tech Hub on the continent.

Some Keys Points: -

A few people raised some issues about Econet and their lack of support for the ‘small guy’ within the industry. In fact people weren’t happy at all with their conduct especially those who had approached them to collaborate on a specific project. At this junction, I stood up and spoke about Econet and my thoughts on their interaction with the various parties. It has been noted via several media sources recently that Econet is not or rather has ‘forgotten its roots’. Sadly this is not the first time I’ve heard this. I pointed out that tackling a company that supposedly deposits several millions of dollars per day and has almost 6 million subscribers was ‘probably not the wisest thing to do’. Instead disgruntled stakeholders should focus on the current ICT laws and tackle this issue from that angle.

What do I mean by ‘necessary investment’?

I’ll touch on a 2 key points here: -

• It has been widely noted that certain reforms are necessary to ensure that there is a level playing field in the ICT sector. We need a more open and fair system that ensures that the small guy with a brilliant idea is protected against the big guys with big lawyers and that seemingly endless bank account. Essentially we need more up-to-date and relevant laws in general. For example we require immediate focus on issues like intellectual property and so forth
• We desperately require institutions that financially support the various entrepreneurs we have in Zimbabwe and believe me – we have many! I stumbled across an example of the financial support I’m referring to this a few months ago – www.matambaanonaka.com. Recently I went back to my trusted Twitter account and asked whether we had other angel investors in Zimbabwe. I didn’t get many responses to this question but I know that we need more angel investors if we are to move forward in any meaningful way. 

Overall I was thoroughly impressed with the manner in which BarCampZim was organised – congratulations to the organisers!! I met some of the interesting characters from Twitter and I have every confidence that there will be more BarCamps in Zimbabwe. I look forward to a time when I shift my busy schedule to attend similar events in Bulawayo, Gweru, Mutare and even Chinhoyi. Till then…

 Aluta Continua

This is ONE event I have been patiently waiting for. The first ever independently organised TED event in Zimbabwe. The venue is initmate from what I’ve been told so it’s crucial that people register quickly to secure a place. I will share more details about the various speakers once they announce the finer details.

For more information, please download this: tedx registration brochure (2)

Join the conversation…

A lovely lady from www.kubatana.net got in touch earlier this month and wanted to pick my brain about returning home to Zim. She made an interesting comment about me probably based on my blog and what she had read (I can only assume of course).She said I was ’chatty type’ and she expected the interview to last longer than planned. We both laughed at the comment and she was right – the interview was longer than expected. Anyway here’s the link: – http://www.kubatana.net/html/archive/econ/110318kub.asp?sector=ECON&year=0&range_start=1