Sir Nigel's Journey…

I firmly believe Zimbabweans have every right to know how the diamonds are adding value to their own lives. Here’s a Global Witness report dated February 2012 entitled Diamonds A good deal for Zimbabwe? What are your thoughts?

The 2012 budget will focus on the following issues:

1. Consolidating macro-economic stability, founded on an anti-cyclical macro-economic framework;

2. Deliberate focus on inclusive growth with jobs;

3. Attending to the issue of capital formation through Public

4. Sector Investments, with special emphasis on completing outstanding capital projects as opposed to green fields;

5. Ensuring and establishing food security;

6. Redesigning the financial services sector to promote savings, financial deepening, viability, sustainable finance to the business sector, as well as reduction of financial sector vulnerability;

7. Decentralising allocation of resources, with special emphasis on even and equal treatment of Provinces;

8. Investment in social services delivery, in particular health and education;

9. Creating a conducive “Doing Business Environment””;

10. Monetising the Peace Process, in particular the Constitutional

11. Referendum, National Healing and the GPA democratisation imperators;

12. Tackling critical enablers, in particular energy, water and sanitation; and

13. Special focus on rural under-development through addressing rural energy, water and agriculture.

Biti’s focus is ‘the pursuit of inclusive growth, growth with jobs is the focus of this budget’.

Key budget points:

Domestic Developments:

1. Overall growth rate to the end of 2011 is still projected at 9.3%

2. This growth momentum is anticipated to be maintained in 2012 at 9.4%, underpinned by further positive performance in finance (23%), mining (15.8%), tourism (13.7%), agriculture (11.6%), manufacturing (6%), and transport and communication (6%).

Of the transport and communication, ICTs account for 55%, reflecting the large investments being made in that area.

Gross Capital Formation:

1. Countries such as China and India with gross capital formations of more than 50% and 32% of GDP, respectively, have managed to sustain high growth rates of more than 8% annually

2. For developing countries such as Zimbabwe, gross capital formation of at least 30% of GDP is required to facilitate high and sustainable growth rates.

3. Between 2009 and 2010, the country’s gross capital formation remained below 30%, ranging between 15-22% of GDP and is expected to remain within that range in 2011 .– 2012

Foreign Direct Investment:

Zimbabwe’s capital account inflows, thus, remain a sad story, with 2011 foreign direct investment levels at US$125 million.

Agriculture:

The agricultural sector requires more than US$2 billion annually to fully take advantage of its potential the projected growth in agricultural production

of 11.6% in 2012 takes account of the number of financing facilities established by Government, the banking sector, co-operating partners, seed and fertilizer suppliers in support of the preparation for the 2011/2012 agricultural season.

Mining:

1. The 2011 growth for the sector estimated at 25.8%, marginally down on the initial forecast of 33%.

2. In 2012, mining is anticipated to remain the major driving force behind overall economic growth, benefitting from further private capital injections, firm international commodity prices and anticipated initiatives to minimise electricity supply interruptions

Manufacturing:

1. Further recovery in both agriculture and mining should have positive spill over benefits for manufacturing industry, which is projected to register a 6% growth in 2012.

2. Challenges to be overcome include mobilisation of additional lines of credit for industrial re-tooling and other working capital requirements.

3. Sub-sectors anticipated to drive growth in manufacturing will include food stuffs (6%), wood and furniture (8%), metals and metal products (11%), and non-metal products (25%).

Capacity Utilisation:

1. Developments during the first half of the year to June 2011 indicate that overall average capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector improved to about 57.2%, compared to 43.7% last year

2. Capacity utilisation in some of the higher performing sub-sectors is set to significantly improve, from current average levels of around 65%.

3. Capacity utilisation in such sub-sectors as clothing, textiles and printing is set to remain poor, with levels of as low as 20% anticipated in some industries

4. Major factors constraining capacity utilisation include low product demand, obsolete machinery susceptible to frequent breakdowns, lack of working capital and raw materials

Electricity:

1. Notwithstanding targeted and on-going rehabilitation programmes at Hwange, Kariba and small thermal power stations, power supply remains a major challenge for economic recovery.

2. In 2011 alone, about US$40 million was disbursed for the energy programmes, however, resulting in only un-sustained marginal gains in power generation

3. The targeted power supply in 2011 of 1 600 MW remains a challenge, as only an average of 1 105 MW has so far been realised, though some output improvement from 952 MW in 2010.

4. In 2012, electricity output is projected at 1 244 MW, reflecting only a 4.5% growth, a far cry from power supply levels required to drive sustainable increased production activity power supply remains a major noose around the economy.

5. Uninterrupted electricity supply will, however, hinge on sustained investments in power generation and transmission which, will require the contribution of all beneficiaries

Tourism:

1. Further work towards overcoming negative perceptions over our country is required.

2. Some success towards re-branding Zimbabwe’s tourism facilities and infrastructure under the theme – “Zimbabwe: A World of Wonders.” coupled with the self-evident reduction of internal disharmony over the last 35 months, is being noted.

3. The successful bid by Zimbabwe to co-host with Zambia the 2013 United Nations World Tourism Organisation General Assembly is, therefore, a positive development for the country. Successful hosting of this event should further boost tourist arrivals.

4. The partial recovery of tourism has seen growth in average bed occupancy from 36% in 2010 to 37% in 2011.

Information Communication Technology:

1. Information Communication Technology (ICT) sector remains one of the fastest growing sectors of the economy. According to the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), Zimbabwe was ranked 124 out of 152, jumping four places from the 128 it was in 2008

2. Concurrently, the voice penetration rate or tele-density has improved, reaching 68% in 2011, of which mobile penetration accounted for 65%, making Zimbabwe one of the countries with the highest rates alongside South Africa, Botswana, and Mozambique.

3. However, the internet penetration rate at around 13% remains below the international levels of 26.6%, although above the regional average of 11%.

4. Cumulatively, the three mobile service providers share close to 8.1 million subscribers, up from 7.7 million last year

Transport:

1. Rail transport is the most competitive mode of transport for bulk goods internally, and with external markets

2. The poor state of our rail transport system and network continues to undermine the competitiveness of Zimbabwean goods in markets

3. Major challenges at the National Railways of Zimbabwe (NRZ) relate to run-down track, obsolete signalling systems and rolling stock.

Construction:

1. Construction activity is often a useful barometer for underlying business activity in any economy

2. The stabilisation of the macro-economic environment since 2009 has allowed the construction sector to slowly emerge from the crisis of the past decade, with positive growth of 1% estimated for 2011 and 1.5% for 2012

3. Challenges related to intermittent supply side bottlenecks of such critical inputs as cement and bricks, coupled with under-capitalisation of the major construction companies and liquidity constraints, all serve to limit the sector’s capacity to seize on emerging green shoots of economic recovery.

4. With gradual improvement in investment in the production of the key building materials such as cement and bricks, activity in the sector is set to improve

National Housing:

Government has availed the US$25 million facility in 2010 through the IDBZ for housing projects in various local authorities.

Of this amount, US$14.8 million has so far been spent on various housing projects in a number of local authorities, which include:

• Willowvale Flats; Sunway City, Dzivarasekwa and Marimba in Harare;

• Lower Paradise in Marondera

• Mbizo in Kwekwe;

• Chikanga in Mutare;

• Parklands in Bulawayo;

• Checheche in Chipinge; and

• Nemamwa in Masvingo;

• Spitzkop in Gwanda; and

• Tshobani in Chiredzi.

Inflation:

1. Since the inauguration of our Inclusive Government 35 months ago, inflation management and oversight remains the apogee of our macro-economic targets

2. Annual inflation, which started the year at 3.5%, dropped to

3. 2.5% in the second quarter of the year. By the third Quarter of

4. The year, inflation was on the rise, reaching 3.3% in July, 3.5% in August and 4.3% in September. Month on month inflation also oscillated in almost the same pattern.

5. Developments in the month of October witnessed some reversal, with monthly inflation falling to 0.1%. Monthly inflation in September was 0.8%, a level last registered in March. The significant deceleration in inflation during October saw the year on-year inflation falling to 4.2%.

6. The major drivers of inflation so far in 2011 have been housing and rental costs, alcohol and food.

7. There was a sharp increase of 0.5% in food prices between August and September, related to unwarranted retrogressive price adjustments on some basic commodities, following review of import duties.

8. International oil prices have been volatile and mostly on the decline from April 2011. However and surprisingly, there was no corresponding movement in domestic prices

9. Our domestic price developments also reflect the economic integration pattern between our economy and that of South Africa, a major source of our imports. Some of the price movements in South Africa are reproduced asymmetrically in Zimbabwe.

10. Government review of utility tariffs has also had a bearing on inflationary pressures in the economy, in particular the 31% electricity adjustment in September 2011

11. Projections to year end, however, show annual average inflation remaining within the targeted range of 3.5-4.5%.

12. Our inflation levels remain within the SADC macroeconomic convergence criteria thresholds.

Financial Services:

1. There is no doubt that, over the last 35 months, developments in the financial sector have been progressively upwards, with the deposit base now estimated at US$3.3 billion by end of September 2011.

2. It is estimated that over US$2 billion remains outside the formal banking system, on account of absence of incentives and historical confidence concerns, among others

3. In 2012, the deposit base is estimated at above US$3.8 billion, of which about 80% will be available for lending.

4. Lending to the productive sectors grew to US$2.59 billion over the period, constituting 78.4% of total deposits. Primary beneficiaries were in the sectors of agriculture (18%), manufacturing, (20%), distribution (19%) and mining (6%).

5. However, compared to previous years, there is a gradual shift in the proportion of lending towards services, construction, communication and individuals, while the share of lending to agriculture, mining and manufacturing remained relatively stagnant.

6. Beneficiaries continue to face high lending interest rates of about 15-30%, against deposit rates of as low as 0.2%.

The entire 2012 National Budget Statement is located here – http://www.zimtreasury.org/downloads/930.pdf

I attended the Sangnanai-Hlanganai World Travel Fair 2011 which was held at Rainbow Towers in Harare. I was impressed with the setup and the variety of stands. Typically one would expect to see the tourism related stands, but there were other exhibitors including some of the major educational institutions in Zimbabwe and even our brand new friend – ‘Emirates’.

According to The Herald ‘This is the first time that Sanganai/Hlanganani, as a brand, has had a country partner and the arrangement is meant to boost tourist arrivals from countries seen to be doing well in promoting arrivals into Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe International Travel and Tours (ZITT) are partnering the Zimbabwe Tourism Authority (ZTA) in hosting the Chinese delegation of over 60 exhibitors, buyers and journalists from the Asian country’.

There were a large number of Chinese people walking around, taking pictures and networking with various individuals. From what I heard, the majority of the Chinese had actually flown in earlier this week specifically to attend this trade fair. This is very encouraging I thought. From what I actully saw over the last few days, I have no doubt that the travel industry in Zimbabwe is on its way back to where it belongs. The journey has been and will continue to be hard given the last decade or so, but I know that the Zimbabwean is a resilient and resourceful individual – we have and will always ‘make a plan’.

I took some photos: -  

Rainbow Towers Entrance

Some exhibitors in the foyer

The African Sun stand

Just outside the HICC

 Zimbabwe Defence Forces stand

Someone brought their plane! (which I thought was cool!)

The Zimbabwe Tourism Authority (ZTA) stand

Eastern Highlands Stand

Another outdoors shot

The Emirates Stand

Cars and more cars at the Range Rover & Jaguar stand

The Art and Craft stands

Interesting video: -

You are invited to the first Zimbabwe Business Deal event at 4pm on Thursday 17 March 2011 in Harare, Zimbabwe at Royal Harare Golf Club Bar. This is an opportunity for you to find out what is happening on the Zimbabwe business scene, strike a deal and find opportunities for partnerships. The panel is made up of startups, entrepreneurs, miners, financiers and business people doing in Zimbabwe.

Come and hear about the businesses firsthand, get the opportunity to invest, buy land and directly interact with people doing business in Zimbabwe at the event. Panelists will be discussing real, practical projects. Come and network with entrepreneurs, professionals and executives, and even do deals! DATE: Thursday, 17th March 2011 Time: 4 – 7.30 pm VENUE: Royal Harare Golf Club Bar, 5th Street Extension corner Josiah Tongogara Street, Harare, Zimbabwe Tel: +263 4 702927/8/9/0

SCHEDULE OF EVENTS Opening remarks: Debbie Peters – MC Project presentations by 1. Ivan Savala- Sagate Mining 2. Steve Margolis – Margolis Holdings 3. Tawanda Chikosi – Laptop Tracking 4. Farayi Dyirakumunda -African Investment Markets 5. Humphrey Mliswa - Doltek Enterprises 6. Bernadette Msipa – Joseph’s Oracle 7. Rinos Mutasa – African Contact Centre

The panel discussion will end in a question and answer session led by Debbie, then general networking. Bring business cards and any marketing materials. Please note that dinner and drinks will be for the guests’ own account

To attend, send confirmation of the following details: • Company name and sector • Full name of participant • Job Title • Email address • Contact number The cost of the event will be $50 payable at the door. Please email Debbie@petersgibsons.com if you have any questions.

VENUE: Royal Harare Golf Club Bar, 5th Street Extension corner Josiah Tongogara Avenue, Harare, Zimbabwe Tel: +263 4 702927/8/9/0

There’s an investment conference in Harare on the 8th & 9th March 2011. Please see the attached documents for more details: Zimbabwe Draft Agenda 2011

Calling all entrepreneurs, miners, financiers and business people looking for investors in Zimbabwe! The first Zimbabwe Investment Platform event will be held on the afternoon of Friday 25 February in Sandton, Johannesburg at the Blues Room in Village Walk.

The Zimbabwe Investment Platform is inviting anyone who is seeking funding for their business or investment to attend the event and pitch on their Zimbabwe project to an audience which will include bankers and private equity principals who can actually finance their project. Financiers and bankers who are interested in doing business in Zimbabwe are also invited to hear about the investments first hand and directly interact with people doing business in Zimbabwe at the event.

Each participant will be given about 10 minutes to pitch their venture in Zimbabwe in front of the audience which will be made up of a large number of bankers, private equity firms and financiers. Participation is free for presenters looking for funding. Speakers wishing to participate must have a real, practical project in Zimbabwe which needs funding or partnership. After the presentations there will be time to network and get some deals done with the financiers

Once all the participants have confirmed attendance, I will circulate the schedule for the event and other details. If you have any further questions, please let me know.

Contact:-

Debbie Peters
Peters Gibsons Investments
P.O. Box 4105
Rivonia
Johannesburg 2128
South Africa
Tel: +27 78 231 1625

Highlights: -

Point 16 – vital to note this bit right here: -

Specific key concerns highlighted by stakeholders during the consultations for the attention of the Budget included the following:

• Guaranteeing uninterrupted power supply.
• Reconstruction and rehabilitation of roads infrastructure.
• Guaranteeing clean water supply and improved sanitation services.
• Improving health and education social service delivery, among others.
• Social protection and safety nets, including for people living with disability.
• Support for agriculture and household food security.
• Continued stability in the price level, including sustainable wage levels.
• Positive Interest rates on bank deposits, and Access to affordable lines of credit.
• Employment creation.
• Abuse of public resources and corrupt practices.
• Perceptions of exclusion in development programmes.
• Political discord in the Inclusive Government and Absence of National healing.

Manufacturing – erratic power supply and absence of medium to long term capital continue to adversely impact on domestic industrial cost of production, compromising competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and limiting growth to the anticipated modest 2.7% in 2010.

Mining: - mining has been the fastest growing sector since 2009, with growth up from 33.3 % in 2009 to an estimated 47% in 2010.

Significant realisation of the potential of the country’s mining industry will require up to US$3-5 billion investment towards the recapitalisation of mining houses over the next 3-5 years broken down as follows:

Gold – 1.000

Platinum – 1.200

Ferrochrome - 0.250

Nickel - 0.110

Coal - 0.280

Diamonds -  0.300

Tourism: – Tourist arrivals are expected to increase to 2.2 million this year, from 2 million in 2009. Reflecting this, tourism receipts are estimated to realise growth of 47% to US$770 million, from US$523 million in 2009. Tourism is anticipated to grow by 6% in 2011, benefitting from the continued recovery in both global and domestic economic activity, and also on the back of targeted marketing strategies.

Financial Sector: - As at 30 September 2010, sixteen out of twenty four banking institutions (excluding the POSB) were in compliance with the minimum paid-up capital requirements. Most banking institutions’ balance sheets showed resilience to shocks with respect to all the risk assessment factors, which include credit, sovereign, foreign exchange, interest rate and liquidity risks. Against this background, bank deposits continue to grow by a monthly average of US$82 million from US$1.3 billion recorded in January 2010 to reach US$2.3 billion in September 2010, signifying improved confidence in the sector.

External Sector: - the latest balance of payments forecasts to year end show total exports growing by 25% in 2010, from US$2 billion in 2009 to US$2.5 billion. Projected mineral exports to year end of US$1.159 billion account for 46% of this, followed by agriculture, US$456.3 million; and manufactured exports, US$393.3 million.

External Debt Development: - notwithstanding the green shoots on the economic recovery front, the country remains saddled with an unsustainable external debt amounting to US$6.9 billion which is some 103% of GDP. About 75.3% of this debt is medium to long term and is owed to official creditors. ‘…About 75.3% of this debt is medium to long term and is owed to official creditors’.

Of the public and publicly guaranteed debt of US$6.4 billion, total external arrears comprised US$4.7 billion by 31 October 2010 and are owed to:

• Multilateral Financial Institutions – US$1.469 billion

• Paris Club – US$0.386 billion

• Non Paris Club - US$0.072 billion’

Recurrent Expenditure Developments

The 2010 National Budget provided for recurrent expenditures of US$1.26 billion. Cumulative recurrent expenditures to October 2010 amounted to US$1.2 billion, representing 82% of the actual expenditures.

The bulk of the current expenditures were on employment costs, goods and services, grants and transfers.

Government is still meeting 100% medical aid contribution to Premier Medical Aid Society for all civil servants in 72 view of low remuneration in the Public Service. To date, about US$23.4 million has been disbursed for this purpose.

Foreign Travel: - foreign travel remains unsustainably high relative to other critical services.

To October 2010, foreign travel expenditures amounted to US$29.2 million, against an original budgetary provision of US$24.2 million, representing 3% of total recurrent expenditure.

Education: - Government also supported 34 000 local and foreign based students through payment of tuition fees and stipends at a cost of US$8.4 million

In 2010, Government in partnership with cooperating partners supported 5 575 primary schools with a package of four textbooks per pupil, stationery and steel cabinets valued at US$52 million. This intervention is set to reduce the textbook to pupil ratio from 1:30 to 1:1.

Health: - Improving health services delivery was also prioritised in 2010 in line with the Millennium Development Goals.

Government disbursed funds amounting to US$115 million to cater for health institutions operations.

This was further augmented by US$12 million for the resuscitation of Gwanda, Masvingo, Ngomahuru, Ingutsheni, Gweru and Karoi hospitals. This intervention has seen an increase in patients receiving treatment at the institutions

Social Protection: – To contain school drop-out rates at both primary and secondary level, Government and development partners availed US$30 million towards the payment of school fees and examination fees for vulnerable children, targeting 625 000 primary school pupils and 160 000 secondary school pupils.

Agriculture: - Productivity in agriculture still lags behind that of many other countries. For example, average maize yields stand at less than one ton per hectare.

Constitution Making Process: – As part of its commitment to fulfil the provisions of the Global Political Agreement, Government in partnership with cooperating partners availed resources to the tune of US$13.7 million towards the Constitution Making Process.

Of this amount, Government contributed US$4.8 million towards training of teams and the Outreach Programme.

This intervention has enabled outreach teams to fully cover all the Provinces by the end of October 2010.

Maintenance of Infrastructure: – The poor state of many Government buildings remains unacceptable as a result of a number of factors, which include under-funding for maintenance and repairs, negligence, lax security systems and unchecked vandalism.

The US$2 million disbursed towards maintenance of buildings and fixed equipment remains inadequate in light of the above challenges and, hence, the need for the Budget to focus on this.

Energy: - The US$2 million disbursed towards maintenance of buildings and fixed equipment remains inadequate in light of the above challenges and, hence, the need for the Budget to focus on this.

Transport: – An amount of US$10.9 million was spent on rehabilitation of roads and bridge construction, US$8.8 million; upgrading of airports, while US$4.3 million, was on rail infrastructure.

Information Communication Technology: – To improve use of information communication technology,

Government has availed resources amounting to US$7.7 million towards establishment of the communication backbone infrastructure, largely through Tel-One.

The resources were meant for the optic fibre link from Harare to Mutare. To date, 228 km out of the 261 km have been excavated and pipes covering 101km have been laid.

To date an amount of US$50 000 has been disbursed towards the e-Government programme, a development that has seen the development of 28 websites for Ministries.

The target is to create an e-government platform which will enable citizens to obtain Government information and services from their local district offices without waiting in queues and travelling long distances.

So far, Government has availed an amount of US$1 million for the procurement of computers for schools, both primary and secondary. This has seen a total of 330 computers being procured out of a target of 589, for distribution across the Provinces

Entire document: – The 2011 National Budget Statement

This week is going to be an extremely interesting week especially the 25th November when the National Budget for 2011 is announced by Mr Biti – Finance Minister. This video is yet another glimpse of what is actually happening on the ground.